David Gutzler, a climatologist retired from the University of New Mexico, said that “in the Rio Grande Basin, snowpack was pretty close to what most people would consider average right around the time of peak snow, a month and a half ago.”
That snow this winter gave us the sense of normality that has been reinforced by spring flowers. However, he said, “it has just melted really fast in this hot weather, so the effect of that on streamflow is we get less flow in the river for the same amount of snow that fell last winter.” [1]
The red flag warnings finally stopped on Monday, and the winds have calmed some. The immediate effect of the clear air was a bright moon and cold morning temperatures. That is expected to end by Monday.
Last rain: 4/1. Week’s low: 29 degrees F. Week’s high: 88 degrees F in the shade. Winds were up to 49 mph in Santa Fé on Monday. Days in May with winds over 25 mph: 13 of 13.
What’s blooming beyond the walls and fences: Apache plume, narrow leaved yucca, bindweed, green leaf five eyes, alfalfa, oxalis, goat’s beard, fleabane, common and native dandelions; needle, rice, cheat, three awn, and June grasses
First needle grass seeds stuck in my pant legs. Many alfilerillo, plants came up in the driveway gravel, but without rain, remained small and have dried up.
What’s blooming in my yard: Cliff rose, Woodsi rose, yellow potentillas, beauty bush, chives, coral bells, Bath pinks, snow-in-summer, pink evening primrose, blue flax, vinca, Dutch clover, Shasta daisies
What’s coming up in my yard: Saint John’s wort; Chinese wisteria and roses of Sharon leafing
Animal sightings: Rabbit, quail, western chickadees, geckoes, butterflies, bumble bee, lady bug, hornets, sidewalk and harvester ants
Tasks: Thursday, when the winds finally died down, I planted a forsythia that had been sitting on my back porch since April 13. For the first time, one of the local hardware stores had some locally grown annuals on Tuesday, probably brought in for Mother’s Day. I also started planting them. Normally I would let them sit on the porch a little longer to adjust to the climate, but I expect it to get too hot to plant in a few days. The next morning the temperature fell to 29 degrees F, but nothing seemed to be harmed.
I’m still picking up elm seeds, plucking dandelion flowers, and pulling goat’s beards and cheat grass. Saturday was the first day I didn’t find a Russian thistle carcass. They had been landing in shrubs and trees, rather than on the ground. I did find pieces in beds when I put out the bedding plants.
Weekly update: The fires changed on Tuesday, May 10. I don’t know the exact time, but the temperature in my yard was 80 at 10:45 am, and the winds had started by 11 am. At 11:30 am, I saw smoke spewing over the Sangre de Cristo mountains when I got to an intersection with Riverside.
One never sees that. Last week was the first time I saw smoke over the Jémez and then it was 30 miles away [2] and from behind the 7,838' high San Miguel mountains. [3] Mora County is more than twice as far away, 62+ miles. [4] Jicarita, the nearest peak to the active part of the fire is 12,835' high. [5]
As I returned home at 12:30, I could see new smoke from the Jemez Springs fire, and smoke from the Sangre was visible over by neighbor’s house.
My mid-afternoon, the smoke from the Cerro Pelado fire had been replaced by a haze. The Sangre fire seemed frozen: it no longer has changing shape. I assumed the forest service had gotten to it.
Naturally, there was nothing on the web. The Santa Fe Forest public information office posts reports in mid-morning for the previous day. This seems designed to make sure nothing draws the attention of morning or evening news broadcasts, at the same time it fulfills a requirement to keep the public informed. All I saw that day was one photo someone posted on Twitter from Angel Fire.
The Wednesday report did grudgingly admit that the smoke was visible for a hundred miles in all directions. The managers responded by moving resources “strategically around the fire from areas with lessening activity to those that are very active.” [6]
The smoke followed the same cycle as Tuesday. Nothing in the morning, when my neighbor’s flag was flapping at 45 degrees. That tends to mean the winds were 10 miles an hour at 10:30. The temperature rose from 70 to 81 in the next twenty minutes and the winds started. The smoke from the Sangre appeared over my neighbor’s roof again.
The Forest Service admitted in its Thursday report on Wednesday’s activity that this fire, which has been burning since it began as a controlled burn on April 5, “is going to keep growing, and more firefighters, heavy equipment operators, support crews, and incident command teams are being ordered.” The fire itself was keeping them from working: smoke grounded the aircraft at times. [7]
By Friday, the firefighters were doing the unthinkable: talking to reporters. This much smoke could not help but become a story sometime.
They told the reporters “there was not much they could do in recent days to stop the fast-moving flames burning in tinder-dry forests” and that “we’re all in awe of what we’ve already experienced ... to this point.” [8] They simply were no match for high temperatures and low humidity. One recalled, in “some places where winds were gusting over ridgetops, it was ‘almost like putting a hair dryer on it’.” [9]
One reason that may have been willing to talk is they knew their managers were replacing them. The fire was being divided into two command centers, with one Southwest Incident Management Team returning to the north, and another taking over the south. In addition, a team from California was coming to help with strategy in the north where the fire had broken loose of Monday night [10] and was threatening more small communities nestled in the high valleys.
Finding scapegoats is business as usual in a bureaucracy. They have more than 1,900 people working day and night and cannot report progress to their supervisors. The system of rewards and metrics cannot let them admit what David Gutzler had said. Things only appear normal. Drought and low humidity are invisible.
Notes on photographs:
1-3. Austrian Copper roses (Rosa foetida bicolor), 11 May 2022 and 14 May 2022. The popular name comes from the bright red flowers in the second picture. However, sometimes they revert to the pure yellow of Rosa foetida. Knowing this, I ordered one from reputable rose grower, only to get a yellow one. When I bought the others in Albuquerque, they were not in bloom so I risked getting more yellow ones. This year the yellow has been visible from the house, the driveway, and almost anywhere else in the yard.
4. Hermit’s Peak Fire from my yard, 11 May 2022 at 12:53 pm. The yellow Austrian Copper is at the base of the cottonwood.
5. Hermit’s Peak Fire from my yard, 11 May 2022 at 6:21 pm. This is the same kind of frozen pattern that appeared in the afternoon on the day before. Eastern snowball (Viburnus opulus) in front.
End notes:
1. David Gutzler. Quoted by Mark Olalde. “The Southwest’s Drought and Fires Are a Window to Our Climate Change Future.” Pro Publica, reprinted by Talking Points Memo, 11 May 2022.
2. “Distance from Española, NM to Cochiti, NM.” Distance-Cities website.
3. “San Miguel Mountains Topo Map in Sandoval County NM.” Topo Zone website.
4. “Distance from Española, NM to Mora County, NM.” Distance-Cities website.
5. “Jicarita Peak, New Mexico.” Peak Bagger website. This peak is near the threatened community of Angostura in Taos County. It’s at 8,970' according to the Roadside Thoughts website post on the settlement.
6. Santa Fe National Forest Public Information Office. “Hermits Peak and Calf Canyon Fires -May 11, 2022.” NM Fires website, 11 May 2022.
7. Santa Fe National Forest Public Information Office. “Hermits Peak and Calf Canyon Fires May 12, 2022, Daily Update, 09:00AM.” NM Fires website, 12 May 2022.
8. Dave Bales, commander. Quoted by Arcio J. Sanchez and Brian Melley, Associated Press. “‘Like An Inferno:’ U.S. West Burning At Furious Pace So Far.” Huffington Post website, 13 May 2022.
9. Todd Abel, fire operations chief. Quoted by Sanchez.
10. Santa Fe National Forest Public Information Office. “Hermits Peak and Calf Canyon Fires May 13, 2022.” NM Fires website, 13 May 2022.
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